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J Appl Physiol (September 20, 2007). doi:10.1152/japplphysiol.00499.2007
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Submitted on May 8, 2007
Accepted on September 19, 2007

Evaluation of two cold thermoregulatory models for prediction of core temperature during exercise in cold water

John W. Castellani1*, Catherine O'Brien2, Peter Tikuisis3, Ingrid V. Sils4, and Xiaojiang Xu5

1 Thermal and Mountain Medicine Division, US Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine, Natick , Massachusetts, United States
2 TMMD, USARIEM, Natick, Massachusetts, United States
3 Human Protective Systems, Defense & Civil Institute of Environmental Medicine, North York, Canada
4 TMMD, USARIEM, Natick, Massachusetts, United States; Natick, Massachusetts, United States
5 Biophysics and Biomedical Modeling Division, US Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine, Natick, Massachusetts, United States

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: john.castellani{at}us.army.mil.

Cold thermoregulatory models (CTM) have primarily been developed to predict core temperature (Tcore) responses during sedentary immersion. Few studies have examined their efficacy to predict Tcore during exercise-cold exposure. This study compared observed Tcore responses during exercise in cold water with the predicted Tcore from a 3-cylinder (3-CTM) and a 6-cylinder (6-CTM) model, adjusted to include heat production from exercise. A matrix of two metabolic rates (0.44 and 0.88 m/s walking), two water temperatures (10 and 15 degrees C), and two immersion depths (chest and waist) were used to elicit different rates of Tcore changes. Root mean square deviation (RMSD) and non-parametric Bland-Altman tests were used to test for acceptable model predictions. Using the RMSD criterion, 3-CTM did not fit the observed data in any trial, whereas 6-CTM fit the data (RMSD less than standard deviation) in 4/8 trials. In general, the 3-CTM predicted a rapid decline in core temperature followed by a plateau. For the 6-CTM, the predicted Tcore appeared relatively tight during the early part of immersion but was much lower during the latter portions of immersion, accounting for the non-agreement between RMSD and SD values. The 6-CTM was re-run with no adjustment for exercise metabolism and core temperature and heat loss predictions were tighter. In summary, this study demonstrated that both thermoregulatory models designed for sedentary cold exposure, currently, can not be extended for use during partial immersion exercise in cold water. Algorithms need to be developed to better predict heat loss during exercise in cold-water.







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