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Vol. 84, Issue 1, 357-361, January 1998
1 Department of Geriatric
Medicine and 2 North Western
Injury Research Centre,
Jefferson, M. F., N. Pendleton, S. Mohamed, E. Kirkman, R. A. Little, S. B. Lucas, and M. A. Horan. Prediction
of hemorrhagic blood loss with a genetic algorithm neural network.
J. Appl. Physiol. 84(1): 357-361, 1998.
There is no established method for accurately predicting how
much blood loss has occurred during hemorrhage. In the present study,
we examine whether a genetic algorithm neural network (GANN) can
predict volume of hemorrhage in an experimental model in rats and we
compare its accuracy to stepwise linear regression (SLR). Serial
measurements of heart period; diastolic, systolic, and mean blood
pressures; hemoglobin; pH; arterial
PO2; arterial
PCO2; bicarbonate; base deficit; and
blood loss as percent of total estimated blood volume were made in 33 male Wistar rats during a stepwise hemorrhage. The GANN and SLR used a
randomly assigned training set to predict actual volume of hemorrhage in a test set. Diastolic blood pressure, arterial
PO2, and base deficit were selected
by the GANN as the optimal predictors set. Root mean square error in
prediction of estimated blood volume by GANN was significantly lower
than by SLR (2.63%, SD 1.44, and 4.22%, SD 3.48, respectively;
P < 0.001). A GANN can predict
highly accurately and significantly better than SLR volume of
hemorrhage without knowledge of prehemorrhage status, rate of blood
loss, or trend in physiological variables.
artificial intelligence; linear regression; physiological process modeling
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